Section 1.3
Establish the Office of Global Competition Analysis and Include Foresight Capabilities
Chapter 01
Section 1.3
1.3A
Congress should establish the Office of Global Competition Analysis to develop timely data and technology forecasting to inform policymakers’ decisions.
To safeguard U.S. leadership in critical technologies, the United States needs to assess classified, public, and commercial information to fully understand where the nation stands in relation to strategic competitors such as China. Only then would the United States be able to make informed policy decisions about how to strengthen its technology competitiveness.
Recommendation
1.3A
Recommendation 1.3A
Congress should establish the Office of Global Competition Analysis to develop timely data and technology forecasting to inform policymakers’ decisions.
Currently, there is no single federal agency that uses data-backed analyses to evaluate the entire global and domestic landscape of critical technologies such as biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. Yet these technologies are vital to U.S. economic prosperity and national security.
To fix this problem, in 2023, a bipartisan group of Senators introduced the Global Technology Leadership Act (GTLA) (S.1873), which would establish the Office of Global Competition Analysis (OGCA).112 While this bill has not been signed into law, it provides an important framework for how the United States can undertake a competitive analysis to understand its own current technological vulnerabilities.
In addition to adopting the provisions covered by the GTLA, the government would be well served by actively working to understand what the future of emerging technologies might hold. The United States tends to play catch-up after critical technologies have already become mainstream. Rarely does the government proactively identify emerging technologies so that it can implement policies to ensure the United States takes the lead in developing them.
Policymakers already draw on “foresight capabilities” to explore potential scenarios in the future, so they can make more informed policy decisions in the present.113 The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), for example, regularly convenes experts to better understand emerging medical devices and biologics (medications derived from living organisms or their cellular components).114 The FDA then uses the information gathered to prepare its regulators and thereby accelerate the timeline for innovations to go to market.
The government’s lack of a centralized foresight office, however, means that foresight practitioners must set up such capabilities from scratch. Each agency has to invest in similar resources and activities, wasting time and effort.
Finally, the federal government fails to sufficiently leverage its vast network of scientists and technical experts across various departments and agencies. Their expertise could offer the United States a distinct advantage in foresight, especially for emerging technologies.
To address these shortcomings, Congress should establish the OGCA, as proposed in the GTLA, with an amendment to include strategic foresight as part of its responsibilities. Doing so would position the United States to take a more informed, future-oriented approach to technological development.
The OGCA would have two primary duties. First, it would conduct continual short- and long-term assessments of the United States’ global competitiveness in technology and innovation. To do this, the office would assess the United States’ research and commercialization capabilities, its policies toward industry, and its foreign dependencies, and then compare these assets and liabilities to those of America’s strategic competitors. To inform its analyses, the office would collect relevant information and data from federal departments and agencies as well as obtain information from companies that may not be publicly available.
Second, the office would host a “strategic foresight library.” Similar to how community libraries provide books, databases, journal subscriptions, and research expertise, but do not conduct the research themselves, a strategic foresight library would help federal departments and agencies conduct foresight studies relevant to their specific missions.
This library would:
- acquire and maintain resources (such as proprietary datasets and academic journals) for departments and agencies interested in conducting foresight studies;
- maintain a repository of past foresight exercises to collect and share best practices and references;
- conduct outreach to promote awareness and adoption of foresight among federal departments and agencies, including through a public-facing website; and
- establish a crowdsourced forecasting platform that would tap into the collective knowledge of thousands of scientists and researchers across the federal government who are actively working on critical and emerging technologies.
Driving Biotechnology on Capitol Hill
The United States is on the cusp of a new industrial revolution, driven by biology, that will transform manufacturing, energy, agriculture, healthcare, and more.
This moment represents an inflection point for humanity’s relationship with the natural world, and by extension how we defend, build, nourish, and heal our country.
The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology was created to explore how emerging biotechnologies can affect our national security and recommend paths forward to Congress. Getting this mandate right—ensuring that we produce good policy that resonates not only with Congress but also builds a bright future for the country—is an audacious task. The catalyzing force for this mission is the four members of Congress who serve as Commissioners.
Our Congressional Commissioners have unique experiences of service to the Commission. They also have unique assessments of American strength in science and technology, what the stakes are in leading in biotechnology, and what is in store for the United States if America gets this right.
The Wisdom in this Design
This bipartisan and bicameral advisory body, one that is time-limited and calibrated for high impact, has a unique advantage. Unlike many prior commissions, this Commission includes two Senators and two Representatives from different parts of the country and across the political spectrum, alongside other Commissioners.
“I knew the Commission and its findings would have a lasting impact on the lives of Americans, and I wanted to be part of that work,” Senator Todd Young (R-IN) said of his appointment. Senator Young chairs the Commission and leans on his years of bipartisan work to lead the group.
Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) was likewise eager to accept the appointment. “I was excited to be selected to serve on the Commission to help position the United States at the forefront of shaping biotechnological advancements,” he said. “The next generation of emerging biotechnologies will play a major role in safeguarding our national security interests and in enabling sustainable solutions to global challenges.”
Prioritizing American Biotechnology
Our Congressional Commissioners are eager to bring biotechnology to the forefront of Congress and share the belief that the United States is primed to meet this moment and to lead the world in biotechnology.
“Through this Commission, we are seeking to place newfound emphasis on this domain so that we can adequately protect Americans and our interests,” said Representative Stephanie Bice (R-OK-05). Such a critical mission requires sharp bipartisan thinking and broad bicameral support.
Prioritizing American Biotechnology
Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA-17) sees better access to STEM education as a vital piece of the national security puzzle, saying “STEM education, and biology education specifically, is essential for America’s future.” As biotechnology creates opportunity and highlights new risks, a ready and capable U.S. population will be critical to ensure safety and security.
“A bioliterate public will ensure American leadership in the development and fielding of critical new capabilities and enable us to stay ahead of global threats,” Senator Young added. Innovating at the leading edge is what will keep the United States ahead of its adversaries.
Putting Biotechnology to Work for the United States
Prioritizing American leadership in biotechnology is also a savvy economic strategy. “We need to prioritize a new economic patriotism that revitalizes American production and lifts up the working class by embracing emerging biotechnologies,” said Representative Khanna.
“I worked hard to be a bridge in the legislative negotiations with my Republican colleagues,” he added, highlighting his collaboration with Senator Young to help pass the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. “That was a fantastic bipartisan moment, and now the Commission is yet another opportunity to look at a greater vision for building America’s future.”
“It unlocked investments around the country to help address a national security vulnerability,” Senator Young said.
The Congressional Commissioners see this work as vital to get ahead of similar supply chain vulnerabilities in biotechnology, before another investment at the scale of CHIPS and Science is necessary.
“Americans want a modern national security strategy and more investments at home,” maintained Representative Khanna.
“That’s where this report from the Commission comes in,” Senator Padilla said. “Biotechnology is a strategic domain essential for tackling our most pressing challenges and being prepared for what the future will bring.”
“We must be better prepared to face future threats,” Representative Bice added. “And we must work diligently to protect the American homeland.”
Congress can and must take steps to strengthen and prepare the American biotechnology enterprise to meet any challenge.
This report from the Commission may be the culmination of over a year and a half of work, but the work continues beyond its publication. How Congress responds at this critical moment will define how the United States out-innovates strategic competitors, leverages the benefits of biotechnology for our national defense, safeguards our national security, and makes America the leading partner for biotechnology worldwide.